Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
